SCENARIO PLANNING

Scenario planning is an analytical tool that can help community planning and transportation professionals prepare for what lies ahead. Scenario planning provides a framework for developing a shared vision for the future by analyzing various forces (e.g., health, transportation, economic, environmental, land use, etc.) that affect growth. Scenario planning, which can be done at the statewide level or for metropolitan regions, tests various future alternatives that meet state and community needs. A defining characteristic of successful public sector scenario planning is that it actively involves the public, the business community, and elected officials on a broad scale, educating them about growth trends and trade-offs, and incorporating their values and feedback into future plans (Source: US DOT Federal Highway Administration website).

FHWA’s defines scenario planning as:

A process in which transportation professionals and citizens work together to analyze and shape the long-term future of their communities. Using a variety of tools and techniques, participants assess trends in key factors such as transportation, land use, demographics, health, etc. Participants bring the factors together in alternative future scenarios, each of these reflecting different trend assumptions and tradeoff preferences.

FHWA supports scenario planning in the transportation planning process. As part of this support, FHWA encourages the use of Metropolitan Planning (PL) and other transportation funds to implement scenario planning, provides feedback on efforts being planned or implemented, shares and provides information on scenario planning efforts nationwide, identifies resources and tools for use in scenario planning, and facilitates peer workshops. More resources, including case studies, techniques, and tools can be found on the Scenario Planning website: ( http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/Planning/scenplan/index.htm).